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The Cowboys defense could possibly have looked ferocious against the Bucs’ offense on Monday evening, but the 49ers are a big step up in class. [newline]Brock Purdy continues to show he’s additional than capable in this offense with all the weapons he has about him and they really should be able to capitalize on scoring possibilities, unlike Tampa Bay. As for Dallas, Dak Prescott gets talked down on a great bit, but he has been amazing for most of this season. One particular point that I like about Prescott’s matchup against the 49ers defense is that he’s been good against zone coverage this year, and the 49ers are a single of the most zone-heavy defenses in the NFL. The 49ers defense doesn’t give up points quite often, but with Prescott’s ability to move the ball against zone coverage, this game could reach the upper-40s as my model projects.
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And the general correlation coefficient of win percentage vs. runs scored. EV is not about what you feel will come about, but about the advantage you have over the implied probabilities employing Vegas lines. If we make one hundred of these 10% EV bets we would anticipate to net $1,000 on these one hundred bets.
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